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2012 Senate · FL

Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2012-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 769 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 40%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.23% · Republican 42.23%

D+13.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 40 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.232 − 42.226 = 13.006
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (13.006) = 1.994
  4. Absolute miss = |1.994| = 1.994

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30785, race ID 1477 (538 database).