Skip to content

2012 President · FL

InsiderAdvantage · fieldwork ended 2012-11-04 (2 days before the election) · 437 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 52%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%

D+0.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 52 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (0.877) = -5.877
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.877| = 5.877

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.9 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30744, race ID 662 (538 database).