2012 President · IA
Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 800 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 42%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.99% · Republican 46.18%
D+5.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 42 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 51.988 − 46.178 = 5.810
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (5.810) = -0.810
- Absolute miss = |-0.810| = 0.810
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30667, race ID 665 (538 database).