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2012 President · IN

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 54%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.93% · Republican 54.13%

R+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 54 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.927 − 54.126 = -10.199
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-10.199) = -2.802
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.802| = 2.802

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30619, race ID 668 (538 database).