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2012 Governor · IN

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 51%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.56% · Republican 49.49%

R+2.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 51 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.560 − 49.486 = -2.926
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-2.926) = -9.074
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.074| = 9.074

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30619, race ID 1260 (538 database).