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2012 President · IN

McLaughlin & Associates · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 55%

R+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.93% · Republican 54.13%

R+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 55 = -14.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.927 − 54.126 = -10.199
  3. Signed miss = -14.00 − (-10.199) = -3.802
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.802| = 3.802

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30614, race ID 668 (538 database).