2012 President · FL
Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 985 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 46%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.01% · Republican 49.13%
D+0.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 46 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 50.008 − 49.131 = 0.877
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (0.877) = 1.123
- Absolute miss = |1.123| = 1.123
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30601, race ID 662 (538 database).