2012 Senate · OH
Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,313 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 39%
D+9.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.70% · Republican 44.70%
D+6.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 39 = 9.00
- Actual margin = 50.701 − 44.700 = 6.001
- Signed miss = 9.00 − (6.001) = 2.999
- Absolute miss = |2.999| = 2.999
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30600, race ID 1494 (538 database).