2012 Senate · VA
Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 1,197 respondents · Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 40%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.87% · Republican 46.96%
D+5.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 40 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 52.866 − 46.961 = 5.905
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (5.905) = 2.095
- Absolute miss = |2.095| = 2.095
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30598, race ID 1501 (538 database).