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2012 Senate · HI

Ward Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-19 (18 days before the election) · 786 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 35%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.60% · Republican 37.40%

D+25.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 35 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.602 − 37.398 = 25.204
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (25.204) = -3.203
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.203| = 3.203

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30414, race ID 1478 (538 database).