2012 House · NM-3
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 148 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 35%
D+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 63.13% · Republican 36.88%
D+26.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 35 = 18.00
- Actual margin = 63.125 − 36.875 = 26.250
- Signed miss = 18.00 − (26.250) = -8.249
- Absolute miss = |-8.249| = 8.249
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.2 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30386, race ID 5153 (538 database).