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2012 House · NM-1

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 401 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 36%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.06% · Republican 40.77%

D+18.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 36 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.061 − 40.772 = 18.289
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (18.289) = -3.289
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.289| = 3.289

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30386, race ID 5151 (538 database).