2012 Senate · NM
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 650 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 42%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.01% · Republican 45.28%
D+5.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 42 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 51.008 − 45.278 = 5.730
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (5.730) = 2.269
- Absolute miss = |2.269| = 2.269
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30386, race ID 1491 (538 database).