2012 President · OH
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research · fieldwork ended 2012-10-17 (20 days before the election) · 1,131 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 43%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.67% · Republican 47.69%
D+3.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 43 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 50.667 − 47.688 = 2.979
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (2.979) = 0.022
- Absolute miss = |0.022| = 0.022
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30142, race ID 688 (538 database).