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2000 Senate · MN

Tarrance Group · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 43%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.83% · Republican 43.29%

D+5.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 43 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.834 − 43.293 = 5.541
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (5.541) = -4.542
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.542| = 4.542

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25886, race ID 1695 (538 database).