2002 Governor · NM
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2002-10-30 (6 days before the election) · 905 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 52% · Republican 34%
D+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.49% · Republican 39.05%
D+16.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 52 − 34 = 18.00
- Actual margin = 55.488 − 39.046 = 16.442
- Signed miss = 18.00 − (16.442) = 1.558
- Absolute miss = |1.558| = 1.558
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25572, race ID 1403 (538 database).