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2002 House · NH-2

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 33% · Republican 54%

R+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.86% · Republican 56.81%

R+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 33 − 54 = -21.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.856 − 56.808 = -15.952
  3. Signed miss = -21.00 − (-15.952) = -5.049
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.049| = 5.049

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25392, race ID 2960 (538 database).