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2002 House · NH-1

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 54%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.48% · Republican 58.11%

R+19.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 54 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.482 − 58.108 = -19.626
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-19.626) = 0.626
  4. Absolute miss = |0.626| = 0.626

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25392, race ID 2959 (538 database).