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2002 Governor · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-15 (21 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 28% · Republican 57%

R+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.21% · Republican 58.62%

R+20.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 28 − 57 = -29.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.214 − 58.618 = -20.404
  3. Signed miss = -29.00 − (-20.404) = -8.596
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.596| = 8.596

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25392, race ID 1402 (538 database).