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2002 House · NH-2

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-21 (15 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 54%

R+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.86% · Republican 56.81%

R+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 54 = -19.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.856 − 56.808 = -15.952
  3. Signed miss = -19.00 − (-15.952) = -3.049
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.049| = 3.049

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25391, race ID 2960 (538 database).