2002 House · NH-1
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-10-21 (15 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 53%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 38.48% · Republican 58.11%
R+19.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 53 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 38.482 − 58.108 = -19.626
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-19.626) = 5.626
- Absolute miss = |5.626| = 5.626
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25391, race ID 2959 (538 database).