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2002 Senate · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2002-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.40% · Republican 50.82%

R+4.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.402 − 50.819 = -4.417
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-4.417) = 0.417
  4. Absolute miss = |0.417| = 0.417

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 25389, race ID 1669 (538 database).