2006 Senate · MI
Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 532 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 34%
D+19.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.26%
D+15.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 34 = 19.00
- Actual margin = 56.910 − 41.258 = 15.652
- Signed miss = 19.00 − (15.652) = 3.348
- Absolute miss = |3.348| = 3.348
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24707, race ID 1591 (538 database).