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2006 Governor · MI

Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 532 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 41%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.36% · Republican 42.30%

D+14.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 41 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.363 − 42.304 = 14.059
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (14.059) = -1.059
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.059| = 1.059

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24707, race ID 1344 (538 database).