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2006 Senate · CT

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2006-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 8%

D+29.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.73% · Republican 9.62%

D+30.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 8 = 29.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.730 − 9.623 = 30.107
  3. Signed miss = 29.00 − (30.107) = -1.107
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.107| = 1.107

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24197, race ID 1583 (538 database).