2008 House · NM-3
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 207 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 23%
D+28.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.74% · Republican 30.47%
D+26.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 23 = 28.00
- Actual margin = 56.741 − 30.472 = 26.269
- Signed miss = 28.00 − (26.269) = 1.730
- Absolute miss = |1.730| = 1.730
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16512, race ID 4284 (538 database).