2008 Senate · NM
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 39%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.33% · Republican 38.67%
D+22.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 61.328 − 38.672 = 22.656
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (22.656) = -8.656
- Absolute miss = |-8.656| = 8.656
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16512, race ID 1568 (538 database).