2008 President · national
Ipsos · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 831 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 42%
D+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%
D+7.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 42 = 6.00
- Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
- Signed miss = 6.00 − (7.400) = -1.400
- Absolute miss = |-1.400| = 1.400
The poll overstated the Republican by 1.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 15236, race ID 38 (538 database).