2004 President · national
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2004-10-29 (4 days before the election) · 1,258 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 48%
even
The certified result
Democrat 48.13% · Republican 50.57%
R+2.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 48.130 − 50.573 = -2.443
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (-2.443) = 2.444
- Absolute miss = |2.444| = 2.444
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 14874, race ID 39 (538 database).