U.S. Senate
DJames Talarico
48.4%
average of 17 polls
RKen Paxton
46.2%
average of 17 polls
Difference: 2.2 points
Photos: James Talarico, Antonioaesparza, CC BY-SA 4.0; Ken Paxton, Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 4.0. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+2.2, corrected D+2.4 (±1.7) · 17 pollsters, fieldwork through 2026-10-21
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-21 | 965 LV | Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 45; Ted Brown (OTH) 5; Undecided (UND) 5 | Tied | 6.0 |
| ActiVote | 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-21 | 400 LV | Ken Paxton (R) 49; James Talarico (D) 51 | D+2.0 | 9.8 |
| Emerson College | 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-19 | 1,000 LV | Ken Paxton (R) 48; James Talarico (D) 49; Ted Brown (OTH) 3 | D+1.0 | 6.1 |
| Beacon Research/ Shaw & Co. Research for Shaw & Co. Research (R) | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-19 | 1,398 LV | Ken Paxton (R) 49; James Talarico (D) 49; Undecided (UND) 2 | Tied | 5.2 |
| Pollfinity Research | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18 | 278 LV | James Talarico (D) 48; Ken Paxton (R) 43; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 7 | D+5.0 | 11.2 |
| Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18 | 969 LV | James Talarico (D) 51; Ken Paxton (R) 47 | D+4.0 | 6.2 |
| InsiderAdvantage(R-aligned) | 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 | 1,200 LV | Ken Paxton (R) 49; James Talarico (D) 48 | R+1.0 | 5.6 |
| University of Houston / Texas Southern University | 2026-10-10 to 2026-10-14 | 2,000 LV | Ken Paxton (R) 46; James Talarico (D) 48; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 3 | D+2.0 | 4.3 |
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group for The Cook Political Report | 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-13 | 934 LV | James Talarico (D) 49; Ken Paxton (R) 44; Undecided (UND) 7 | D+5.0 | 6.2 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-11 | 854 LV | James Talarico (D) 46.7; Ken Paxton (R) 47.2; Other (OTH) 2.2; Undecided (UND) 3.9 | R+0.5 | 6.5 |
| YouGov for YouGov | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-16 | 1,492 LV | Ken Paxton (R) 49; James Talarico (D) 51 | D+2.0 | 5.1 |
| Marist College | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-11 | — | James Talarico (D) 47; Ken Paxton (R) 45; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 4 | D+2.0 | — |
| Trafalgar Group(R-aligned) | 2026-10-06 to 2026-10-08 | 1,086 LV | James Talarico (D) 47.1; Ken Paxton (R) 43.6; Other (OTH) 1.8; Undecided (UND) 7.6 | D+3.5 | 5.7 |
| Siena College for Siena University | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-08 | 617 LV | Ken Paxton (R) 44; James Talarico (D) 48; Other (OTH) 3; Undecided (UND) 5 | D+4.0 | 7.6 |
| Verasight for VoteHub | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-20 | 509 LV | Ken Paxton (R) 45; James Talarico (D) 48; Ted Brown (OTH) 1; Undecided (UND) 6 | D+3.0 | 8.4 |
| VoteHub/Verasight | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-20 | 601 LV | James Talarico (D) 47.6; Ken Paxton (R) 45.2; Other (OTH) 1.4; Undecided (UND) 5.8 | D+2.4 | 7.7 |
| ActiVote | 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-14 | 400 LV | Ken Paxton (R) 48; James Talarico (D) 52 | D+4.0 | 9.8 |
| YouGov | 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-05 | 3,625 LV | Ken Paxton (R) 44; James Talarico (D) 50; Other (OTH) 2; Undecided (UND) 3 | D+6.0 | 3.1 |
| University of Texas /Texas Politics Project for Texas Politics Project | 2026-09-25 to 2026-10-05 | 861 LV | Ken Paxton (R) 47; James Talarico (D) 50; Other (OTH) 3 | D+3.0 | 6.6 |