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Pennsylvania 2024 polls and results

U.S. Senate

Photo of Robert P. Casey Jr.
DRobert P. Casey Jr.
48.6%
average of 22 polls · result 48.6%
Photo of Dave McCormick
RDave McCormick
45.7%won
average of 22 polls · result 48.8%

Difference: 2.9 points

Photos: Robert P. Casey Jr., United States Senate, Public domain; Dave McCormick, United States Senate, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.

Plain average D+2.9, corrected D+1.6 (±1.4) · 22 pollsters, fieldwork through 2024-11-04

Result: Dave McCormick (R) 48.8% ✓, Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48.6%, John C. Thomas (L) 1.3% · R+0.2. The plain poll average missed by 3.1 points toward the Democrat.

PollsterFieldworkSampleResultMargin± MOE
AtlasIntel2024-11-03 to 2024-11-041,840 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49.2; Dave McCormick (R) 46.5D+2.74.5
Research Co.2024-11-02 to 2024-11-03450 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48; Dave McCormick (R) 46D+2.09.0
Patriot Polling2024-11-01 to 2024-11-03903 RVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50.4; Dave McCormick (R) 49D+1.46.5
Trafalgar Group(REP-aligned)2024-11-01 to 2024-11-031,089 LVDave McCormick (R) 47.4; Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 45.9R+1.55.7
AtlasIntel2024-11-01 to 2024-11-022,049 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48.7; Dave McCormick (R) 46.6D+2.14.2
InsiderAdvantage2024-11-01 to 2024-11-02800 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 47.8; Dave McCormick (R) 46.7D+1.16.7
Emerson College for The Hill | Nexstar2024-10-30 to 2024-11-021,000 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 47.1; Dave McCormick (R) 46.9D+0.26.0
AtlasIntel2024-10-30 to 2024-10-311,738 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49.3; Dave McCormick (R) 45.7D+3.64.6
The New York Times/Siena College for The Philadelphia Inquirer2024-10-29 to 2024-11-021,527 RVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 45D+5.04.9
The New York Times/Siena College for The Philadelphia Inquirer2024-10-29 to 2024-11-021,527 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 45D+5.04.9
OnMessage2024-10-29 to 2024-10-31800 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 46; Dave McCormick (R) 46Tied6.7
Marist College2024-10-27 to 2024-10-301,558 RVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 48D+2.04.9
Marist College2024-10-27 to 2024-10-301,400 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 48D+2.05.2
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion for Morning Call2024-10-27 to 2024-10-30460 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 46D+3.08.9
The Washington Post2024-10-26 to 2024-10-301,204 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 46D+3.05.5
The Washington Post2024-10-26 to 2024-10-301,204 RVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 45D+4.05.5
InsiderAdvantage2024-10-26 to 2024-10-27800 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 46.8; Dave McCormick (R) 46.8Tied6.7
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research2024-10-25 to 2024-11-02699 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 44D+5.07.1
Florida Atlantic University PolCom Lab/Mainstreet Research2024-10-25 to 2024-11-02798 RVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48; Dave McCormick (R) 43D+5.06.6
YouGov for The Times of London | SAY242024-10-25 to 2024-10-31982 RVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 43D+7.06.0
YouGov for The Times of London | SAY242024-10-25 to 2024-10-31947 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 44D+6.06.2
AtlasIntel2024-10-25 to 2024-10-291,299 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48.6; Dave McCormick (R) 46.5D+2.15.3
Monmouth University Polling Institute2024-10-24 to 2024-10-28824 RVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 45; Dave McCormick (R) 44D+1.06.4
Quinnipiac University2024-10-24 to 2024-10-282,186 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 47D+3.04.1
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for FOX News2024-10-24 to 2024-10-281,310 RVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 51; Dave McCormick (R) 46D+5.05.3
Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for FOX News2024-10-24 to 2024-10-281,057 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 48D+2.06.0
CNN/SSRS2024-10-23 to 2024-10-28819 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48; Dave McCormick (R) 45D+3.06.6
Morning Consult2024-10-22 to 2024-10-311,538 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 46.1; Dave McCormick (R) 43.2D+2.94.7
YouGov for CBS News2024-10-22 to 2024-10-281,249 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48; Dave McCormick (R) 42D+6.05.3
Emerson College for RealClearPennsylvania2024-10-21 to 2024-10-22860 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 46.9; Dave McCormick (R) 45.5D+1.46.4
Susquehanna Polling & Research for La Torre Live2024-10-18 to 2024-10-22500 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 48.6; Dave McCormick (R) 45.8D+2.88.5
Trafalgar Group(REP-aligned)2024-10-17 to 2024-10-191,084 LVDave McCormick (R) 47.2; Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 46.8R+0.45.8
ActiVote2024-10-14 to 2024-10-31400 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50.5; Dave McCormick (R) 49.5D+1.09.8
AtlasIntel2024-10-12 to 2024-10-172,048 LVDave McCormick (R) 48.3; Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) 47.1R+1.24.2
The Bullfinch Group2024-10-11 to 2024-10-17600 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 43D+7.07.7
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research2024-10-09 to 2024-10-20794 RVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 42D+7.06.6
Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research2024-10-09 to 2024-10-20583 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 48D+1.08.0
YouGov for Claremont McKenna College Rose Institute of State and Local Government2024-10-07 to 2024-10-171,062 RVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 42D+7.05.7
YouGov for Claremont McKenna College Rose Institute of State and Local Government2024-10-07 to 2024-10-171,043 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 50; Dave McCormick (R) 42D+8.05.8
Morning Consult2024-10-06 to 2024-10-151,395 LVRobert P. Casey Jr. (D) 49; Dave McCormick (R) 41D+8.05.0