How to read these numbers
Each pollster's latest poll whose fieldwork ended in the final 21 days before election day (2024-11-05), next to how each race came out. Polling averages, not forecasts.
Colours use the corrected average, which did not pass its test. Use the plain average
Margin of error on: the ± figures are 95% sampling error only; real misses have averaged 4–6 points. Turn it off
Sources: Polls: ABC News / 538 poll pages, archived 2025-03-06; Results: ABC News / 538 election-results files (fivethirtyeight/election-results).