U.S. Senate
RTim Sheehy
47.8%won
average of 3 polls · result 52.6%
DJon Tester
43.4%
average of 3 polls · result 45.5%
Difference: 4.4 points Also: Sid Daoud (L) 2.4%, Robert Barb (G) 1.2%
Photos: Tim Sheehy, United States Senate, Public domain; Jon Tester, U.S. Government, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average R+4.4, corrected R+7.8 (±3.8) · 3 pollsters, fieldwork through 2024-11-04
Result: Tim Sheehy (R) 52.6% ✓, Jon Tester (D) 45.5%, Sid Daoud (L) 1.2% · R+7.1. The plain poll average missed by 2.8 points toward the Democrat.
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AtlasIntel | 2024-11-01 to 2024-11-04 | 752 LV | Tim Sheehy (R) 49.8; Jon Tester (D) 39.2 | R+10.6 | 6.7 |
| Emerson College for The Hill | Nexstar | 2024-10-23 to 2024-10-25 | 1,000 LV | Tim Sheehy (R) 50.6; Jon Tester (D) 48.1; Sid Daoud (L) 0.8; Robert Barb (G) 0.5 | R+2.5 | 6.2 |
| Montana State University Billings | 2024-09-30 to 2024-10-16 | 760 A | Jon Tester (D) 43; Tim Sheehy (R) 43; Sid Daoud (L) 4; Robert Barb (G) 2 | Tied | 6.6 |