District 1 no polls
Predicted R+11.3: the 2024 result (R+21.2) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Michigan 2026 polls
District 2 no polls
Predicted R+23.5: the 2024 result (R+33.4) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 3 no polls
Predicted D+19.8: the 2024 result (D+9.9) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 4 no polls
Predicted R+1.8: the 2024 result (R+11.7) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 53% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 5 no polls
Predicted R+23.0: the 2024 result (R+32.9) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 6 no polls
Predicted D+36.9: the 2024 result (D+27.0) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 7
DWilliam Lawrence
53.0%
average of 1 poll
RTom Barrett
45.0%
average of 1 poll
Difference: 8.0 points
Photos: Tom Barrett, House Creative Services, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+8.0, corrected D+9.1 · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-14
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | 314 LV | William Lawrence (D) 53; Tom Barrett (R) 45; Undecided (UND) 2 | D+8.0 |
District 8 no polls
Predicted D+16.6: the 2024 result (D+6.6) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 9 no polls
Predicted R+27.3: the 2024 result (R+37.3) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 10 no polls
Predicted D+3.8: the 2024 result (R+6.1) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 53% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 11 no polls
Predicted D+28.5: the 2024 result (D+18.6) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 12 no polls
Predicted D+54.2: the 2024 result (D+44.3) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 13 no polls
Predicted D+54.0: the 2024 result (D+44.1) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).