District 1 no polls
Predicted R+39.5: the 2024 result (R+49.4) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Kentucky 2026 polls
District 2 no polls
Predicted R+36.3: the 2024 result (R+46.2) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 3 no polls
Predicted D+33.8: the 2024 result (D+23.9) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 6
DZach Dembo
46.8%
average of 4 polls
RRalph Alvarado
39.8%
average of 4 polls
Difference: 7.0 points
Photos: Ralph Alvarado, Voice of America, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average D+7.0, corrected D+6.0 (±4.0) · 4 pollsters, fieldwork through 2026-10-20
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC(D-aligned) | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-20 | 572 LV | Ralph Alvarado (R) 41; Zach Dembo (D) 47; Undecided (UND) 12 | D+6.0 | 7.7 |
| DCCC(D-aligned) | 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-05 | 606 LV | Ralph Alvarado (R) 40; Zach Dembo (D) 46; Other (OTH) 6; Undecided (UND) 8 | D+6.0 | 7.4 |
| Lake Research Partners | 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-04 | 400 LV | Ralph Alvarado (R) 40; Zach Dembo (D) 47; Other (OTH) 4; Undecided (UND) 10 | D+7.0 | 9.1 |
| Change Research(D-aligned) | 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-05 | 524 LV | Ralph Alvarado (R) 38; Zach Dembo (D) 47; Other (OTH) 7; Undecided (UND) 8 | D+9.0 | 7.9 |