District 1 no polls
Predicted D+18.4: the 2024 result (D+8.5) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
Indiana 2026 polls
District 2 no polls
Predicted R+18.2: the 2024 result (R+28.1) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 3 no polls
Predicted R+23.7: the 2024 result (R+33.6) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 4 no polls
Predicted R+24.0: the 2024 result (R+33.9) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 5
RVictoria Spartz
48.0%
average of 1 poll
DJ. D. Ford
47.0%
average of 1 poll
Difference: 1.0 points
Photos: Victoria Spartz, House Creative Committee, Public domain; J. D. Ford, Dominic, CC0. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.
Plain average R+1.0, corrected R+1.0 (±7.8) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-04within the margin of error
| Pollster | Fieldwork | Sample | Result | Margin | ± MOE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expedition Strategies for House Majority PAC(D-aligned) | 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-04 | 600 LV | Victoria Spartz (R) 48; J. D. Ford (D) 47; Undecided (UND) 5 | R+1.0 | 7.8 |
District 6 no polls
Predicted R+22.3: the 2024 result (R+32.2) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 7 no polls
Predicted D+49.3: the 2024 result (D+39.4) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 8 no polls
Predicted R+28.6: the 2024 result (R+38.5) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).
District 9 no polls
Predicted R+21.7: the 2024 result (R+31.7) plus the national swing (D+9.9).
In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).