Arizona 2026 polls

Predicted D+6.1: the 2024 result (R+3.8) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 64% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

DJonathan Nez

50.0%

average of 1 poll

REli Crane

48.0%

average of 1 poll

Difference: 2.0 points

Photos: Jonathan Nez, Wikiuser159597, CC BY-SA 4.0; Eli Crane, United States Congress, Public domain. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.

Plain average D+2.0, corrected D+3.0 (±10.4) · 1 pollster, fieldwork through 2026-10-14within the margin of error

Pollster	Fieldwork	Sample	Result	Margin	± MOE
Emerson College for Poll Vault	2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14	345 LV	Eli Crane (R) 48; Jonathan Nez (D) 50; Undecided (UND) 2	D+2.0	10.4

Predicted D+54.3: the 2024 result (D+44.4) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted D+17.2: the 2024 result (D+7.3) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted R+10.9: the 2024 result (R+20.8) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 88% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted D+7.4: the 2024 result (R+2.5) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 64% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted D+36.8: the 2024 result (D+26.9) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted R+3.1: the 2024 result (R+13.0) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 53% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).

Predicted R+20.7: the 2024 result (R+30.6) plus the national swing (D+9.9).

In past midterms, predictions this close went that way 100% of the time. A prediction, not a poll (E006).