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Arizona 2024 polls and results

U.S. Senate

Photo of Ruben Gallego
DRuben Gallego
49.8%won
average of 21 polls · result 50.1%
Photo of Kari Lake
RKari Lake
44.2%
average of 21 polls · result 47.6%

Difference: 5.6 points Also: Eduardo Quintana (G) 1.7%

Photos: Ruben Gallego, United States Senate, Public domain; Kari Lake, Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0. Candidates without a freely licensed photo are shown by initials.

Plain average D+5.5, corrected D+4.5 (±1.5) · 21 pollsters, fieldwork through 2024-11-04

Result: Ruben Gallego (D) 50.1% ✓, Kari Lake (R) 47.6%, Eduardo Quintana (G) 2.3% · D+2.4. The plain poll average missed by 3.1 points toward the Democrat.

PollsterFieldworkSampleResultMargin± MOE
AtlasIntel2024-11-03 to 2024-11-04875 LVKari Lake (R) 48.4; Ruben Gallego (D) 47.8R+0.66.5
Victory Insights2024-11-02 to 2024-11-03750 LVRuben Gallego (D) 49.7; Kari Lake (R) 47D+2.77.0
Patriot Polling2024-11-01 to 2024-11-03801 RVRuben Gallego (D) 50.5; Kari Lake (R) 48.3D+2.26.9
Trafalgar Group(REP-aligned)2024-11-01 to 2024-11-031,090 LVRuben Gallego (D) 49; Kari Lake (R) 48.5D+0.55.9
AtlasIntel2024-11-01 to 2024-11-02967 LVKari Lake (R) 49.1; Ruben Gallego (D) 47.4R+1.76.2
InsiderAdvantage2024-11-01 to 2024-11-02800 LVRuben Gallego (D) 49.3; Kari Lake (R) 47.2D+2.16.8
Emerson College for The Hill | Nexstar2024-10-30 to 2024-11-02900 LVRuben Gallego (D) 50.1; Kari Lake (R) 45.2D+4.96.4
AtlasIntel2024-10-30 to 2024-10-311,005 LVKari Lake (R) 48.6; Ruben Gallego (D) 47.9R+0.76.1
OnMessage2024-10-29 to 2024-10-31800 LVRuben Gallego (D) 48; Kari Lake (R) 48Tied6.8
Noble Predictive Insights2024-10-28 to 2024-10-30775 LVRuben Gallego (D) 48; Kari Lake (R) 44; Eduardo Quintana (G) 2D+4.06.8
Mitchell Research & Communications2024-10-28 to 2024-10-28610 LVRuben Gallego (D) 50; Kari Lake (R) 46; Eduardo Quintana (G) 1D+4.07.8
Mitchell Research & Communications2024-10-28 to 2024-10-28610 LVRuben Gallego (D) 50; Kari Lake (R) 47D+3.07.8
Data Orbital2024-10-26 to 2024-10-28550 LVKari Lake (R) 45.2; Ruben Gallego (D) 44.5; Eduardo Quintana (G) 1.6R+0.77.9
The New York Times/Siena College2024-10-25 to 2024-11-021,025 RVRuben Gallego (D) 51; Kari Lake (R) 43D+8.05.9
The New York Times/Siena College2024-10-25 to 2024-11-021,025 LVRuben Gallego (D) 50; Kari Lake (R) 45D+5.06.0
YouGov for The Times of London | SAY242024-10-25 to 2024-10-31880 RVRuben Gallego (D) 49; Kari Lake (R) 44D+5.06.4
YouGov for The Times of London | SAY242024-10-25 to 2024-10-31856 LVRuben Gallego (D) 49; Kari Lake (R) 45D+4.06.5
Data for Progress2024-10-25 to 2024-10-301,079 LVRuben Gallego (D) 50; Kari Lake (R) 45; Eduardo Quintana (G) 2D+5.05.8
AtlasIntel2024-10-25 to 2024-10-291,458 LVRuben Gallego (D) 48.4; Kari Lake (R) 47.9D+0.55.0
RABA Research2024-10-25 to 2024-10-27589 RVRuben Gallego (D) 49; Kari Lake (R) 34D+15.07.3
Trafalgar Group(REP-aligned)2024-10-24 to 2024-10-261,094 LVRuben Gallego (D) 49.7; Kari Lake (R) 45.9D+3.85.8
Morning Consult2024-10-21 to 2024-10-30666 LVRuben Gallego (D) 50; Kari Lake (R) 42D+8.07.3
CNN/SSRS2024-10-21 to 2024-10-26781 LVRuben Gallego (D) 51; Kari Lake (R) 43D+8.06.8
InsiderAdvantage2024-10-19 to 2024-10-20800 LVRuben Gallego (D) 50; Kari Lake (R) 45.8D+4.26.8
HighGround2024-10-19 to 2024-10-20400 LVRuben Gallego (D) 51.7; Kari Lake (R) 42.3D+9.49.5
Marist College2024-10-17 to 2024-10-221,329 RVRuben Gallego (D) 53; Kari Lake (R) 45D+8.05.3
Marist College2024-10-17 to 2024-10-221,193 LVRuben Gallego (D) 53; Kari Lake (R) 45D+8.05.6
Redfield & Wilton Strategies for The Telegraph2024-10-16 to 2024-10-18691 LVRuben Gallego (D) 48; Kari Lake (R) 41; Eduardo Quintana (G) 2D+7.07.0
University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy/Truedot2024-10-12 to 2024-10-20846 RVRuben Gallego (D) 51.16; Kari Lake (R) 35.87D+15.36.2
AtlasIntel2024-10-12 to 2024-10-171,440 LVRuben Gallego (D) 49.7; Kari Lake (R) 46.2D+3.55.0
YouGov for CBS News2024-10-11 to 2024-10-161,403 LVRuben Gallego (D) 54; Kari Lake (R) 45D+9.05.2
Morning Consult2024-10-06 to 2024-10-15653 LVRuben Gallego (D) 52; Kari Lake (R) 40D+12.07.3
ActiVote2024-10-05 to 2024-10-31400 LVRuben Gallego (D) 54.3; Kari Lake (R) 45.7D+8.69.8