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2024 President · Puerto Rico

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 4,914 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 56.2% · Republican 25.4%

D+30.8

The certified result

Democrat 73.36% · Republican 26.64%

D+46.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56.2 − 25.4 = 30.80
  2. Actual margin = 73.359 − 26.641 = 46.718
  3. Signed miss = 30.80 − (46.718) = -15.918
  4. Absolute miss = |-15.918| = 15.918

The poll overstated the Republican by 15.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89385, race ID 16079 (538 database).

population: lv