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2024 Senate · Virginia

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 2,202 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 52.6% · Republican 44%

D+8.6

The certified result

Democrat 54.37% · Republican 45.44%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52.6 − 44 = 8.60
  2. Actual margin = 54.366 − 45.443 = 8.923
  3. Signed miss = 8.60 − (8.923) = -0.323
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.323| = 0.323

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89383, race ID 9504 (538 database).

population: lv