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2024 President · Virginia

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 2,202 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 50.5% · Republican 45.1%

D+5.4

The certified result

Democrat 51.82% · Republican 46.06%

D+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50.5 − 45.1 = 5.40
  2. Actual margin = 51.824 − 46.057 = 5.767
  3. Signed miss = 5.40 − (5.767) = -0.366
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.366| = 0.366

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89383, race ID 8895 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv