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2024 President · Texas

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 2,434 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 53.7%

R+9.7

The certified result

Democrat 42.46% · Republican 56.14%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 53.7 = -9.70
  2. Actual margin = 42.457 − 56.140 = -13.683
  3. Signed miss = -9.70 − (-13.683) = 3.983
  4. Absolute miss = |3.983| = 3.983

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89382, race ID 8889 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv