2024 Senate · Ohio
AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 1,022 respondents · Online Ad
The poll said
Democrat 45.8% · Republican 48.8%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.47% · Republican 50.09%
R+3.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45.8 − 48.8 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 46.470 − 50.089 = -3.619
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-3.619) = 0.619
- Absolute miss = |0.619| = 0.619
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89380, race ID 9526 (538 database).
population: lv