Skip to content

2024 President · Ohio

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 1,022 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 45.2% · Republican 53.7%

R+8.5

The certified result

Democrat 43.93% · Republican 55.14%

R+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45.2 − 53.7 = -8.50
  2. Actual margin = 43.928 − 55.136 = -11.208
  3. Signed miss = -8.50 − (-11.208) = 2.707
  4. Absolute miss = |2.707| = 2.707

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89380, race ID 8863 (538 database).

population: lv