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2024 Governor · North Carolina

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 1,219 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 37.5%

D+16.5

The certified result

Democrat 54.90% · Republican 40.08%

D+14.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 37.5 = 16.50
  2. Actual margin = 54.895 − 40.084 = 14.811
  3. Signed miss = 16.50 − (14.811) = 1.689
  4. Absolute miss = |1.689| = 1.689

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89379, race ID 9502 (538 database).

population: lv