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2024 Senate · Montana

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 752 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 39.2% · Republican 49.8%

R+10.6

The certified result

Democrat 45.50% · Republican 52.64%

R+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39.2 − 49.8 = -10.60
  2. Actual margin = 45.500 − 52.643 = -7.143
  3. Signed miss = -10.60 − (-7.143) = -3.457
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.457| = 3.457

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89377, race ID 9519 (538 database).

population: lv