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2024 President · Montana

AtlasIntel · fieldwork ended 2024-11-04 (1 days before the election) · 752 respondents · Online Ad

The poll said

Democrat 37.1% · Republican 57.3%

R+20.2

The certified result

Democrat 38.46% · Republican 58.39%

R+19.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37.1 − 57.3 = -20.20
  2. Actual margin = 38.460 − 58.389 = -19.929
  3. Signed miss = -20.20 − (-19.929) = -0.270
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.270| = 0.270

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89377, race ID 8833 (538 database).

This poll asked 2 versions of the question for this race; one is scored (largest sample) so the poll counts once.

population: lv