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2024 President · Georgia

East Carolina University · fieldwork ended 2024-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 902 respondents · IVR/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 49.1% · Republican 49.5%

R+0.4

The certified result

Democrat 48.52% · Republican 50.72%

R+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49.1 − 49.5 = -0.40
  2. Actual margin = 48.525 − 50.717 = -2.192
  3. Signed miss = -0.40 − (-2.192) = 1.792
  4. Absolute miss = |1.792| = 1.792

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89351, race ID 8781 (538 database).

population: lv