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2024 Senate · Ohio

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 900 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 52%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.47% · Republican 50.09%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 52 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.470 − 50.089 = -3.619
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-3.619) = -0.381
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.381| = 0.381

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89349, race ID 9526 (538 database).

population: lv