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2024 President · Ohio

Emerson · fieldwork ended 2024-11-02 (3 days before the election) · 900 respondents · IVR/Online Opt-In Panel/Text-to-Web

The poll said

Democrat 43.5% · Republican 54.7%

R+11.2

The certified result

Democrat 43.93% · Republican 55.14%

R+11.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43.5 − 54.7 = -11.20
  2. Actual margin = 43.928 − 55.136 = -11.208
  3. Signed miss = -11.20 − (-11.208) = 0.007
  4. Absolute miss = |0.007| = 0.007

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 president_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89349, race ID 8863 (538 database).

population: lv